A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
