Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.