Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
